Search

Begin New Search Topic Revolution Author Al Jazeera Center for Studies

1. Sisi’s Harvest: Illusion of Stability, Perpetuation of Unrest

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Events in Egypt last Sunday, the fourth anniversary of the 25 January revolution, had been gestating for almost nineteen months. Popular opposition to the 3 July 2013 regime has continued at varying scales, ranging from massive assemblies at the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares to small demonstrations all over the country, with larger ones on Fridays. But the fourth anniversary’s events marked a deep change in the popular opposition’s temperament, and the sheer size of the demonstrations was more massive than any of last year’s popular movements. This image presents a stark contrast to the message that the regime has been trying to disseminate regionally and globally, claiming it is finally and successfully in control of the country, and that the sole challenge it has to overcome today is that of the economy. This paper presents an initial reading of the events of that day, and their implications for the futures of both the popular opposition and the regime, ending with a discussion on how regional and global forces view the regime.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Revolution, Civil Unrest, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

2. Three Expansion Scenarios for Houthi Movement

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In the three years since the start of the 2011 youth revolution, the Houthi movement has achieved remarkable military expansion into five northern Yemeni governorates outside its operations headquarters in Saada governorate. The Shiite movement has demonstrated solid military capability that has in turn allowed it to simultaneously fight on several fronts. This paper discusses the three possible trajectories for the movement given that it is difficult to ascertain its aims, strategic objectives and future course. First, it is possible the movement will gain military dominance. Second, it could pursue civilian integration. Finally, the movement could pursue a hybrid of military and civil society building activities. The movement’s internal dynamics and the extent to which Yemeni and regional players can influence it will be the deciding factor.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Conflict, Revolution, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

3. Syrian Presidential Elections: Final Blow to Geneva

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
With interest in the Geneva conference’s lacklustre progress fading, and the Syrian regime’s presidential election showcase, any prospects for a political solution based on the 30 June 2012 Geneva declaration have been completely erased. The declaration, which was the basis for Geneva II in January 2014, had called for the formation of a transitional government drawn from both the regime and the opposition. Given this reality, and with the international community’s attention turned to other issues, the possibility of a political solution will be set even further back after the recent 3 June 2014 elections. It is likely that both parties to the conflict – the regime and its allies as well as the opposition and its supporters – will continue to strengthen their military and negotiating positions before any potential political process is launched. In addition, unpublicised contact between Iran and western countries will continue as a “second track” of the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Syrian War, Revolution, Presidential Elections, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

4. Egypt’s Obstructed Horizon: Regime in Crisis and Fragmented Opposition

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Both parties to the Egyptian conflict have depended on the conflict to sustain their existence. As a result, the prospects for reconciliation between the regime and the main opposition force, the Muslim Brotherhood, are very slim. In the short-term, reconciliation appears to be entirely improbable. However, this does not mean that either camp is in a comfortable position. Despite the steadfastness of its street protests for over a year, the popular opposition movement appears to be no closer to displacing the regime than it was in the summer of 2013. For the regime, while there is undoubtedly a strong state apparatus behind Sisi, this has not enabled it to maintain stability nor to solve Egypt’s economic dilemmas and resolve the dramatic deterioration in the state’s ability to care for its people. Finally, controversy between various groups on the ground and tensions among opposition leaders suggest that the mood on the ground is inclined to move away from further escalation of the protests.
Topic:
Security, Government, Politics, Revolution, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

5. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria