The Turkish position on Gaza was weak and lackluster in confronting the Israeli aggression on Gaza perhaps due to the external limits imposed on Turkish power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Constraints
Turkey’s municipal elections were held on 31 March 2024, just nine months after the presidential and parliamentary elections that returned Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the presidency and gave the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a parliamentary majority. While local elections do have the import of national polls, they are a good indicator of trends in public opinion and the relationship between the governing party and its grassroots base.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Turkish President Erdoğan has expressed his desire to meet with Syrian President Assad after years of hostility. However, reconciliation is complex due to conflicting goals: Erdoğan seeks to legitimise arrangements securing his gains, while Assad demands a full Turkish withdrawal from Syrian affairs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, and Bashar al-Assad
If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:
Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
As long as Turkey pursues its regional ambitions, any understandings with the US and the West will necessarily have a hard ceiling. However, Ankara seems to be pursuing a more conciliatory policy in the region and in its relations with the West for both economic and strategic reasons.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, Strategic Interests, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
Topic:
Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
While Erdogan saw the relationship between his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Fethullah Gülen’s movement as a natural reflection of mobilized Islamic conservative forces, the relationship has been a subject of debate and many leaders of the party felt that a clash between the two sides was inevitable. Although the movement’s rhetoric has been centred on distancing itself from politics, it has not hidden its desire to play a political role or be represented within the state apparatus. The Gülen movement was helpful to Erdogan in the past in his campaign against the Kemalist current in the administration and the army, but with the demise of this common threat, differences have emerged between the former allies on the administration of the Turkish state.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Political Parties
A massive wiretapping operation by Gulen affiliates in the government has uncovered alleged corruption by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family, leading to renewed escalation of the crisis between the two sides. These allegations are meant to undermine Erdogan and his party (Justice and Development or AKP) politically and tarnish his image as a clean leader. Erdogan has responded by denying the allegations and labelling them unethical, escalating an ongoing exchange of attacks on moral credibility between the two sides.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fethullah Gülen, Polarization, and Political Crisis