Author: Al Jazeera Center for Studies / Political Geography: Syria

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: After Turkey’s unsuccessful ultimatum set for the Syrian regime and its Russian ally to commit to the Sochi Agreement, Ankara has targeted the Assad regime and its allies’ locations along the de-escalation zone by launching Operation Spring Shield. Russia has capitalized on Turkey’s anger by offering an agreement establishing new facts on ground during a Turkish-Russian summit on March 5th.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Idlib

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to US allies in the Gulf about the Trump’s commitment to the Iran-containment strategy.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Syria

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the Astana process, Moscow seems to be in a race against time to establish the foundations of a solution in Syria before arriving in Geneva: first, by reforming the opposition’s delegation to the negotiations, an effort Moscow has been working on ever since the military intervention in Syria began, and second, by redrawing the solution’s main parameters, which Moscow exerted great effort towards during marathon negotiations conducted with the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry. Through these negotiations, Moscow has been able to change the rules at Geneva by prioritising an agreement to change the constitution, followed by the formation of a non-sectarian representative government, and then calling for presidential elections with Assad’s participation, so ‘the Syrian people can decide his fate’.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:: Syria

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: This policy brief examines developments regarding resolution of the Syrian issue, particularly in light of three key events: Russia’s announcement of a withdrawal, Geneva III talks and the opposition’s latest announcement that they wanted the talks to cease given increasing aggression on civilian areas. For the opposition belonging to the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), Assad cannot have a role in Syria’s political future, particularly given that his regime and its allies is responsible for 95 per cent of the casualties in the country, far exceeding any other actors in Syria, including the Islamic State organisation.(1) This policy brief looks at the outcomes of the third round of Geneva III, what Russia has gained from its intervention and so-called withdrawal, and argues that any future proposals for Syria which maintain Assad’s position will result in continuation of fighting.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Civil War
Political Geography:: Syria

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The Syrian armed opposition’s gains, especially in northern Syria, have stirred Russian and US fears about the possibility of a major regime collapse. This has prompted Moscow to return to the political solution approach to avert further expansion of the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) and to stop the regime’s power from completely dissolving. For the US, this has prompted President Obama to intensify bids to Iran for cooperation to resolve the Syrian crisis. This is in part to prove to his Republican opponents that the nuclear deal will contribute to modifying Iran’s behaviour and will motivate the country to cooperate in resolving the region’s crises rather than exacerbating them. Parallel to the military escalation in Zabadani, Iran re-launched its political initiative, which the Syrian opposition rejected, but which the regime quickly accepted because it guarantees its survival. Turkey has directly entered the fray in an effort to protect its interests in northern Syria, managing to broker a US agreement to establish an IS-free zone (which Turkey also intends to be Kurd-free).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Syria

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