1. Estimating the UK's Return on Investment from an Ambitious Program to Incentivize New Antibiotics
- Author:
- Rachel Silverman and Adrian Towse
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- Anti-microbial drugs form the backbone of modern medicine. Yet their lifespan is naturally limited; over time, use of these drugs selects for mutations that survive exposure those same drugs, driving “anti-microbial resistance,” or AMR. Already, drug-resistant infections kill an estimated 7,600 citizens of the United Kingdom (UK) every year. In the absence of sufficient research and development (R&D) investment for new antimicrobials, deaths from drug-resistant infections could increase dramatically in the coming decade. To address this growing crisis and solve market failures that prevent the development of new antibiotics, the UK has set up “subscription models” for purchasing antibiotics; this has been applied to two drugs thus far, and the model is under consideration for a broader rollout. In this note, we present the results of a modelling exercise to estimate the likely return on investment (ROI) from an expanded program to incentivize new antibiotics, assuming it is paired with complementary and proportionate efforts from the UK’s G7 partners. The results are necessarily imprecise due to several uncertain parameters, but nevertheless provide evidence of a very high expected ROI that is robust to different inputs and assumptions.
- Topic:
- Health, Science and Technology, Health Care Policy, and Medicine
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe