1. Expecting the Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Adele Morris
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change, and non-climate policies like taxes. The results are only reliable to the extent that the future turns out to be reasonably close to the assumptions that went into the model.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, and Markets